Fraser Brown: Two key signings have helped Edinburgh close gap but I still fancy Glasgow Warriors

Glasgow, who host their inter-city rivals in the first leg on Friday, won home and away last year, comfortably at that, and whilst I don’t think it’s unachievable again this time around, the gap between the two clubs has narrowed significantly.

Both teams play good rugby; built on a strong foundation up front, with a desperation to create quick ball and attack space out wide whenever possible. Both teams have had a very similar start to the season in terms of results, each having played seven games in the URC, winning five and losing two. The only thing that separates the clubs is bonus points won, Glasgow’s six to Edinburgh’s two. And both teams are packed to the rafters with internationals, all looking to impress in their last URC outings before the Six Nations squad is picked.

I thought Edinburgh played well against Castres in the Challenge Cup on Saturday. Castres were down to 14 men early after a red card for another head collision in an upright tackle, highlighting again that some players are finding it harder than others to change their behaviours and technique. Sometimes playing against 14 from early on in a game can be difficult, it can create an over eagerness to score, but Edinburgh adapted well, they controlled the game in windy conditions, generated quick ball and attacked the space out wide. The centres impressed and the forwards carried effectively. It was a really professional job.

Their key acquisitions at halfback, Ben Healy and Ali Price, were instrumental in the victory and, in my opinion, have been two of the biggest factors in closing the gap on Glasgow. Ben’s probably been Edinburgh’s best player since he arrived, and Ali is just a top class international nine. He took his try well at the weekend, controlled the tempo of the game and looked like he is rediscovering the form and consistency of a few years ago. However the switch along the M8 came about, it certainly seems to have given Ali the fresh impetus to push to be Scotland’s starting nine in February.

Edinburgh, who will have home advantage in the second leg at Murrayfield on December 30, have always been strong up front but the front row might be a bit of a worry for them this week, particularly at tighthead. Javan Sebastian is out with a knee injury and WP Nel missed the Castres game with a groin strain, though Sean Everitt is hopeful he’ll be back to face Glasgow. Either way, D’Arcy Rae looks set to be involved and he spent six or seven years at Glasgow before heading south so I’m certain he’ll be looking forward to an opportunity to face his old club and some good friends.

I would expect Ewan Ashman to start at hooker. Edinburgh struggled at the lineout during the windy weather at the weekend but then so did Glasgow so that will be a really interesting contest, with Grant Gilchrist, Richie Gray and Scott Cummings all competing for those second-row spots in the Six Nations.

Edinburgh’s back row is strong, regardless of who they pick, and I think adding a nine and ten who control games and take pressure off each other when they need to has been so important. If Ali’s under the cosh then Ben can step up and control the game with his kicking and vice-versa. For me, that’s a real key area on Friday.

I thought Glasgow did really well to scrap out that win last weekend against Bayonne in the Champions Cup. It wasn’t pretty in the last 20 minutes, and there were some obvious issues around the lineout which will need to be fixed this week, but there are not many teams who will go to France with a faltering set-piece and still come away with a victory. Bayonne are a good team and it’s an extremely difficult place to go and win - ask any team in the Top 14 - so Glasgow will be confident going into this week.

Edinburgh have been attacking really well when they’ve got front-foot ball and they’ll want to continue this and increase the tempo. Glasgow will want to get the basics right, make sure their lineout and maul are functioning, they’ll want to create tempo at the breakdown and eliminate Edinburgh’s turnover threats in the back row. They’ll need to be direct to tie in the Edinburgh defence to create space out wide where we’ve seen how devastating they have been over the last 18 months.

I don’t think it’s going to be a turgid, slugfest of game. Both teams like to attack space, play on the front foot and score tries, all the ingredients needed for an exciting game. But then again, I’ve been wrong before!

Last season, when both teams put out their best XVs, I thought there wasn’t much between them, but I certainly thought Glasgow’s squad depth was much stronger. When there were injuries, team rotation and even in games when the subs came on for the last 20-30 minutes, I felt Glasgow were far superior. They had a more rounded squad all season, to be honest. The 23 was interchangeable. You could alter it from game to game and it didn’t make much difference. Edinburgh didn’t have that depth, but they have shown already this year that they are adding to it.

Glasgow also had a clear purpose, a model for exactly how they wanted to play, and they rarely veered away from it. Perhaps at the start of the season, when there was a getting-to-know period between Franco Smith and the rest of the club, it hadn’t quite become instinctive, but certainly by the time Glasgow played Bath in the Challenge Cup in December, Glasgow knew exactly what their DNA was and had confidence that it would work every week.

I may be wrong, but at times last year watching Edinburgh it didn’t feel as if they had complete belief in what they were doing. It might not sound like much, and it is almost impossible to measure in the way we do with every other aspect of the game, but that belief in your systems, the coaches, the other players creates a confidence and calmness when you are under pressure.

Even if we were losing going into the last 20 minutes of games we always had confidence we had the gameplan, the ability and the players to win. So when it came down to really basic stuff like back of a maul or scrum or transition play off kicks, we had a belief that we had enough quality in our team to be able to punish any team in the last 20 minutes which was in stark contrast to Glasgow the year before when we were the worst in the league in the final quarter of games.

I expect Friday to be a cracker and I fancy Glasgow by 11.